مهندسی ترافیک

مهندسی ترافیک

ارزیابی دقت داده‌گواری در پیش‌بینی PM10 کلان‌شهر تهران با استفاده از مدل WRF-Chem

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان
1 دانشیار، پژوهشگاه هواشناسی و علوم جو، تهران، ایران
2 دانش‌آموخته دکتری هواشناسی، تهران، ایران
3 کارشناس پژوهشی، پژوهشگاه هواشناسی و علوم جو، تهران، ایران
چکیده
با توجه به اهمیت پیش‌بینی آلاینده‌های جوی برای شهر تهران، در این پروژه به درستی‌سنجی پیش‌بینی غلظت PM10 با استفاده از مدل WRF-Chem پرداخته شد. به این منظور برونداد مدل با داده‌های پایش دریافت‌شده از شرکت کنترل کیفیت هوای شهر تهران مورد مقایسه قرار گرفت. مدل در بازه زمانی 2023 مدل با داده‌گواری اجرا شد و نتایج پیش‌بینی موردبررسی و درستی‌سنجی شد. در این پژوهش به ارزیابی دقت و کارایی یک مدل پیش‌بینی غلظت PM10 در چهار ایستگاه پایش کیفیت هوای تهران (پیروزی، ستاد بحران، شهرری و مسعودیه) پرداخته شده است. نتایج نشان داد مدل در پیش‌بینی غلظت PM10، به‌ویژه در مقادیر بیشینه غلظت و دوره‌های آلودگی، با چالش‌هایی چون کم برآورد سامانمند، خطای پیش‌بینی بالا و همبستگی ضعیف مواجه بوده است. بااین‌حال، عملکرد مدل در غلظت‌های پایین‌تر PM10 بهتر بوده و در ایستگاه مسعودیه توانسته الگوی تغییرات را با دقت بالاتری بازسازی کند. در مقابل، عملکرد مدل در ایستگاه‌های شهرری و ستاد بحران ضعیف‌تر ارزیابی شد. بر اساس نتایج، بهبود مدل در پیش‌بینی رخدادهای شدید آلودگی و روندهای زمانی ضروری است.
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